Noise : a flaw in human judgment
Daniel Kahneman (Author), Olivier Sibony (Author), Cass R. Sunstein (Author)
Discusses why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones by reducing the influence of "noise"--variables that can cause bias in decision making--and draws on examples in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, strategy, and personnel selection
Print Book, English, 2022
First Little, Brown Spark paperback edition View all formats and editions
Littlle, Brown Spark, New York, 2022
Self-help publications
xii, 452 pages : illustrations ; 21 cm
9780316451390, 0316451398
1267750993
Introduction : Two kinds of error
Part I. Finding noise: Crime and noisy punishment ; A noisy system ; Singular decisions
Part II. Your mind is a measuring instrument: Matters of judgment ; Measuring error ; The analysis of noise ; Occasion noise ; How groups amplify noise
Part III. Noise in predictive judgment: Judgments and models ; Noiseless rules ; Objective ignorance ; The valley of the normal
Part IV. How noise happens: Heuristics, biases, and noise ; The matching operation ; Scale ; Patterns ; The sources of noise
Part V. Improving judgments: Better judges for better judgments ; Debiasing and decision hygiene ; Sequencing information in forensic science ; Selection and aggregation in forecasting ; Guidelines in medicine ; Defining the scale in performance ratings ; Structure in hiring ; The mediating assessments protocol
Part VI. Optimal noise: The costs of noise reduction ; Dignity ; Rules or standards?
Review and conclusion: Taking noise seriously
Epilogue: A less noisy world
Appendix A: How to conduct a noise audit
Appendix B: A checklist for a decision observer
Appendix C: Correcting predictions