Noise : a flaw in human judgment
Daniel Kahneman (Author), Olivier Sibony (Author), Cass R. Sunstein (Author)
Discusses why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones by reducing the influence of "noise"--variables that can cause bias in decision making--and draws on examples in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, strategy, and personnel selection
Print Book, English, 2021
First edition View all formats and editions
Little, Brown Spark, New York, 2021
Self-help publications
ix, 454 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm
9780316451406, 9780316266659, 9780316451390, 0316451401, 0316266655, 0316451398
1249942231
Introduction: Two kinds of error
Finding Noise. Crime and noisy punishment
A noisy system
Singular decisions
Your Mind is a Measuring Instrument. Matters of judgment
Measuring error
The analysis of noise
Occasion noise
How groups amplify noise
Noise in Predictive Judgment. Judgments and models
Noiseless rules
Objective ignorance
The valley of the normal
How Noise Happens. Heuristics, biases, and noise
The matching operation
Scales
Patterns
The sources of noise
Improving Judgments. Better judges for better judgments
Debiasing and decision hygiene
Sequencing information in forensic science
Selection and aggregation in forecasting
Guidelines in medicine
Defining the scale in performance ratings
Structure in hiring
The mediating assessments protocol
Optimal Noise. The costs of noise reduction
Dignity
Rules or standards?
Review and conclusion : taking noise seriously
Epilogue: A less noisy world
Appendices: How to conduct a noise audit ; A checklist for a decision observer
Correcting predictions