Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
Little, Brown, 18. maí 2021 - 464 síður
From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times).
Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.
In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions.
Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.
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LibraryThing ReviewUmsögn notanda - steve02476 - LibraryThing
Important stuff for people trying to understand decision-making flaws in large organizations. But overly long and a bit repetitive too. My main gripe is that it focused on problems for a handful of ... Read full review
LibraryThing ReviewUmsögn notanda - creighley - LibraryThing
Gets very technical but it is interesting. Didn’t finish. The book discusses the MANY variables made in decision-making and it’s implications within our society. Need to finish! Read full review
Your Mind Is a Measuring Instrument
Noise in Predictive Judgments
How Noise Happens
Heuristics Biases and Noise
The Matching Operation
Guidelines in Medicine
Defining the Scale in Performance Ratings
Structure in Hiring
The Mediating Assessments Protocol
The Costs of Noise Reduction
Rules or Standards?
The Sources of Noise
Better Judges for Better Judgments
Debiasing and Decision Hygiene
Sequencing Information in Forensic Science
Selection and Aggregation in Forecasting
Taking Noise Seriously
A Less Noisy World
How to Conduct a Noise Audit
A Checklist for a Decision Observer
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Common terms and phrases
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